A decade following the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
