It was eight weeks ago that Morgan Rogers found himself on the Sunderland turf, appearing bewildered while the Villa manager berated him over missing a through-ball. At that point, as Villa failed to win in six, doubts remained whether his performances were a symptom or a cause of the team's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
On Sunday, however, the sideline response was entirely decidedly more positive. When Rogers swept in his second to reinstate the lead for Villa, the Spanish tactician ripped off his winter coat, threw his arms wide and bellowed. The Birmingham club were on their way to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their initial half-dozen matches, now sit only three points adrift of table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Serious Hopefuls?
This is an exceptionally difficult proposition to answer. Past precedent, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Additionally, they've rarely been entirely convincing during this run, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa registered an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a team that have strung together 10 in a row, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach seems to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition and then rely on their talisman to bail them out with some crisp finishes. It happened away to Leeds, it transpired at West Ham, and it happened versus Manchester United.
The initial strike stemmed from a brilliant finish, arced just inside the post from the corner of the box. The follow-up goal was essentially a slight scruffier version of goal number one capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more direct attempts. Villa have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
A statistical correction may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Rogers, almost certainly, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the net's top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Could it be an alternative path where, instead of outcomes regressing to match displays, the level of play rises to match the results. Key players might still rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho may rediscover the player he was in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are due to regain fitness, strengthening an occasionally vulnerable backline.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, but they surely cannot keep relying on one man.
Savoring the Moment
But then, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers now would be leading a hunt for the title and appearing as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it seems so surreal. When the hero positioned himself before the home supporters at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be loving the experience. As he deserves to. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
